The dark future of the "blue bird" .. the "game" that Elon Musk rejected

Twitter, which the world's richest man aspired to buy and then ditched, faces a legal battle whose board of directors has every chance of winning, but the group won't come out unscathed.

"It's one of the craziest economic issues I've ever seen," analyst Dan Ives told AFP. "From the beginning it looks like a circus and it ends like a circus."

Elon Musk sent a letter to Twitter on Friday announcing that he had terminated the agreement concluded in April to buy the platform for a total of $44 billion.

But Tulane University law professor Ann Lipton says this type of contract is "designed to prevent buyers from panicking and deciding to opt out."

The head of Tesla and SpaceX cites arguments, including that the board underestimated the number of active non-original accounts on the platform and did not provide it with all the information needed to properly assess the spam problem.

Musk's lawyers are also talking about recent layoffs from Twitter employees and a hiring freeze, which are in contravention of the group's commitment to continue operating normally.

But the expert in the law of commercial disputes believes that these are not sufficient reasons.

"Musk is looking for weaknesses in the agreement," she said. "But for false ads, for example, it is not enough to prove that they are false, but that they greatly question the economic foundations of society."

"From a legal point of view, it seems clear that Musk is wrong," she added.

'They could lose a lot'

The possibility remains that Musk is in fact seeking to renegotiate the price cut.

This tactic was used successfully with the LVMH group.

Two years ago, the luxury conglomerate cut an acquisition with Tiffany and subsequently took a price cut.

But experts do not know what price could allow an agreement between Musk and Twitter currently, while the group's share has lost more than a quarter of its value since April.

"Both sides have a lot to lose," said Anne Lipton.

If Twitter wins in the courts, the businessman will have to pay several billion in damages.

In the worst case, he may have to respect the agreement and buy the Californian group at the price that was set first, which is very high compared to its current value, while his wealth has fallen tens of billions in recent months.

But this victory for shareholders will leave the group and the social network in the hands of Elon Musk.

His vision does not match the vision of a large number of employees, users and advertisers on which the economic model of this service depends.

"Twitter is in a worse shape than it was six months ago, but in the long run it's better that Musk doesn't have it," said analyst Carolina Milanesi of Creative Strategies.

- Humiliation -

"It would be like giving a toy to a spoiled child who doesn't want it anymore and doesn't know what to do with it, and ends up forgetting it in a corner."

She added that the "blue bird" would "fade slowly and painfully".

The trial is expected to last months, especially as Musk will work to slow it down, according to Anne Lipton.

And she added that the businessman, who has more than 100 million followers on the platform, "will seek to humiliate them and that will be a source of frustration for employees."

He showered the platform with critical and sarcastic tweets and outlandish suggestions with the encouragement of many of his fans.

For Twitter, Dan Ives said, "It will be a battle on all fronts, to keep its engineers, not lose ground, maintain its brand image, and address investor questions."

Unlike its neighbors in the technology hub Silicon Valley, the network has never turned into a money-making machine capable of diverting user attention to astronomical advertising revenue.

"Over the past few months, Twitter hasn't been able to focus on its business," said Debra Williamson of eMarketer Group. "They're going to have the same problems they had before Musk."

"User growth is slowing down. Ad revenue is growing slightly but the group is now facing a slowdown in the global economy that is affecting the advertising budgets of all social media networks," she added.

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